Osun 2026: National Peace Committee Holds Stakeholders Validation Forum, Identifies Elite Intervention and Party Fragmentation as Offset of Elections in Nigeria
By Abisola Ariwodola,
The National Peace Committee in order to mitigate risks and secure a credible process that reflects the will of Osun’s electorate, has identified Elite Intervention on candidate selection process, Party Fragmentation and political dynamics, as offset of elections in Nigeria.
The Stakeholders’ Consultative Meeting on Validation of Context Analysis and Political Parties’ Compliance Assessment put together by Kukah Centre (TKC), the Secretariat of the National Peace Committee (NPC), held at the three senatorial districts in the state: Osun Central: Aenon Suites Osogbo, Osun West: Western Sun International Hotel Ede, and Osun East: Adeza Hotel, Ile-Ife.
In his welcome remarks at the Osun Central location of the program, the Senior Programme Manager of the Kukah Centre, Esrom Ajanya stated that the National Peace Committee has collaborated with election stakeholders across the country to promote free, fair, peaceful, and credible elections, ahead of the August 15, 2026, off-cycle gubernatorial elections.
He added that the Context analysis and assessment was to examine the State’s political environment, prevailing electoral and security risks, voter participation trends, and election preparedness level of political parties, with the objective of identifying priority issues and opportunities for preventive engagement and strategic peacebuilding to support peaceful, credible and issue-based electoral outcomes.
Giving the Project overview, Barrister Asabe Ndahi Kukah Centre Project Manager, revealed that the emerging findings from the analysis such, as the Osun state transformed political landscape restructured in late 2025 by Gov Ademola Adeleke’s defection from People’s Democratic Party to the Accord party, the All Progressive Congress (APC) consolidation around Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji as its consensus candidate, and former Gov Rauf Aregbesola’s movement to African Democratic Congress (ADC) fielding former Speaker Najeem Salaam, is to integrate stakeholder perspectives and local knowledge, and collaboratively develop context-specific recommendations that will support peaceful and credible elections in Osun state.
The National Peace Commission revealed that the election is governed the Electoral Act 2026, which mandates BVAS and electronic result transmission, though the manual forms remains a legal fallback, adding that campaign spending limits have risen to N3,billion and penalties for vote buying and electoral misconduct have increased.
Highlights was also made on Independent National Electoral Commission INEC reports that about 1.95-million registered voters across 3,763 polling units, and that a critical unresolved issue is the legitimacy of APC-controlled local government councils, tenures extension, conflicting legal interpretations, parallel authority structures and alleged federal financial interventions.
Presenting the Context Analysis, the MEL officer Ms Deborah Obafemi, disclosed that the Kukah centre captured in Osun state, the Security and Conflict dynamics between June 2025 and March 2026, citizen engagement and the media environment , where Voter turnout has declined from from 53-percent (2014) to 42-percent (2022) due to distrust, elite disconnect and vote buying, adding that the media environment is polarised, and women, youths and Persons with Disabilities PWDs face structural barriers.
To the stakeholders present at the validation forum, she posited the Risk Analysis and Strategic Implications as Political Violence, institutional legitimacy, Elite fragmentation, and Criminal insecurity, citing three scenarios of most likely: managed instability with localised violence, contested results and impunity, higher risks: institutional unravelling with federal-state escalation and turnout collapse, and worst case as violent unravelling with coordinated attacks and constitutional crisis.
Also speaking, Kukah Centre Short Term Expert: Dr Gad Peter, on presentation of compliance assessment of political parties reiterated the National Peace Committee mantra of Peace: Violence free election, recommended to Osun state stakeholders to activate state-base peace architect across strata, sustain dialogues, through the electoral process: pre-election, election period and post election, and above all, do no harm by ensuring diverse membership, maintain civil society neutrality, and include women and youth voices.
The Kukah Centre in its Executive Summary at the stakeholder validation forum sponsored by the European Union stated that the Compliance Assessment Report evaluates the preparedness of political parties and key electoral stakeholders ahead the August 15, 2026 governorship election in Osun state, adding that its field consultation shows comprehensive analysis of the political environment, identifying both procedural compliance and underlying risks factors that may affect electoral stability.
It stated that the political context in Osun state is marked by intense competition, elite-driven alignments, and a history of judicial intervention in electoral outcomes. Unlike previous election cycles dominated by two major parties, the 2026 contest features a three-bloc configuration involving the incumbent Accord Party(AC), the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
At the Stakeholders Validation Forum in Osun state attended by representatives of organisations which include: political parties, the Nigeria Correctional Services NCS, Federal Fire Service, Nigeria Drug Law Enforcement Agency NDLEA, Nigeria Association of Women Journalists NAWOJ, Religious leaders, Federation of Female Lawyers FIDA, Civil Societies, Nigeria Council of Women Society NCWS, Nigeria Bar Association, National Youth Service Corps NYSC, Southwest Security Network Agency AMOTEKUN, and the Media among others, the positive indicators were highlighted as adherence to electoral timelines by the electoral commission, completion of party primaries and active engagement by civil society and the media.
The panel session coordinated by the Kukah Centre Short Term Expert, Mr Festus Ojewumi deliberated the peculiarity of Osun state elections, and made democratic recommendations which promotes peace, good governance and includes Women, Youths and persons with disabilities PWDs.